Avaliação dos atrasos nas atividades de construção utilizando Bayesian Networks: Um estudo de caso
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18041/1900-3803/entramado.2.8006Palavras-chave:
Redes Bayesianas, Fatores de atraso, Avaliação Bayesiana dos atrasosResumo
Atrasos nos projetos de construção são atribuídos à concorrência de múltiplos fatores que afetam o desenvolvimento adequado do projeto, e mitigá-los é um dos maiores desafios enfrentados pelo setor, pois requer levar em conta a incidência integrada dos mesmos. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a influência de um grupo de fatores sobre a duração das atividades de construção, utilizando a técnica da rede Bayesiana. Seguindo a metodologia de pesquisa baseada em projeto, foram identificados os principais fatores de atraso que afetam as atividades de construção e as relações de causa e efeito foram modeladas para estimar sua influência sobre a duração das atividades de fundação de um projeto de construção. Os resultados desta pesquisa mostram como a aplicação de uma rede Bayesiana pode ser usada para apoiar os profissionais do local no gerenciamento das atividades de construção e na tomada de decisões relativas ao desenvolvimento do projeto, considerando a incerteza e os fatores que influenciam o desenvolvimento do projeto.
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