Selection of methods for building future scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18041/entramado.2015v11n1.21113Keywords:
Methods, Scenarios, Nature, Characteristics, selectionAbstract
The purpose of this article is to reflect on how different methods for building future scenarios are selected, according to the nature of the scenarios (quantitative, qualitative or mixed) and the characteristics of the exercise being conducted (regional coverage, time horizon, number of scenarios, and sponsor). In total, the authors reviewed 2,603 abstracts of articles published in indexed journals over the period of 2003-2013, 1,009 of which were published in Futures, 1,169 in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, and 425 in Foresight; with the goal of selecting those articles where exercises about future scenarios were presented, and evaluating the frequency of use of the methods based on their nature and the characteristics of the exercise. The various combinations proposed are presented graphically to respond to the purpose of the research, which finds that the nature of the method has a great influence and that the characteristics have little or very little impact on the choice of methods.
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
References
1. AL-SALEH, Yasser. Renewable energy scenarios for major oil-produ- cing nations: The case of Saudi Arabia. En: Futures. November 2009. Vol. 41, No. 9, p.650–662.
2. BAKER, Katherine; COX, Deborah y SVEINSDOTTIR, Thordis. Fore- sight on the future of public research metrology in Europe. En: Fore- sight. 2011. Vol. 13, No.1, p. 5-18.
3. BALLANTYNE, Joe; CURRY, Andrew y SUMNER, Andy. (2011). Africa 2010-2020: poverty reduction beyond the global crisis. En: Foresight, 2011. Vol. 13. No. 3, p. 24-37.
4. BAÑULS, Victor; TURROF, Murray y ROXANNE, Starr. Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. November 2013. Vol. 80, No. 9, p. 1756–1774.
5. BAÑULS, Victor y SALMERÓN, José. A Scenario-Based Assessment Model-SBAM. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Julio 2007. Vol. 74, No 6, p. 750–762.
6. BEZOLD, Clem. Lessons from using scenarios for strategic Foresight. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. November 2010. Vol. 77, No 8, p. 1513–1518.
7. BLACKMAN, Colin. Stumbling along or grave new world? Toward Europe ́s information society. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No 5, p.261- 270.
8. BLASS, Eddie; THORNTON, Marie y BERNICE, Rawling. Future sce- narios for a depressed region of England: the role of education in creating alternative futures. En: Foresight. 2011. Vol. 13, No. 6, p.3-17.
9. BLASS, Eddie; JASMAN, Anne y SHELLEY, Steve. Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK. En: Futures. June 2010. Vol. 42, No. 5, P. 445–453.
10. BOUWMAN, H. y VANDER DER DUIN, P. Technological forecasting and scenario matter. En: Foresight.2003. Vol. 5, No.4, p. 8-19.
11. BRUNNHUBER, Stefan; FINK, Alexander, y KUHLE, Jens Peter. The financial system matters: future perspectives and scenarios for a sus- tainable future. En: Futures. May 2005. Vol 37, No. 4, p.317–332.
12. CAIRNS, George; WRIGHT, George; BRADFIELD, Ron; VAN DER HEIDEN, Kees y BURT, George. Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning. En: Technological Fore- casting and Social Change. March 2004. Vol. 71, No. 3, p.217-238.
13. CAIRNS, George; AHMED, Iftekhar; MULLETT, Jean y WRIGHT, George. Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical re- flections on a climate change scenarios case study.En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. January 2013. Vol. 80, No. 1, p. 1–10.
14. CASTORENA, David; ROMERO, Geovanny Y VILLARREAL, Ama- do. Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol. 15, No. 6, p.492-516.
15. CEPNI, Elif. Does convergence matter if it takes 100 years? Different scenarios of convergence. En: Futures. October 2010. Vol. 42, No. 8, p. 882–894.
16. COLE, María, y KUHLMANN, Andrés. A scenario-based approach to airport security. En: Futures. May 2012. Vol. 44, No.4, p. 319–327.
17. CZAPLICKA-KOLARZ, Krystina; STANCZYK, Krzysztof; y KAPUS- TA, Krzysztof. Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector de- velopment in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of tech- nology foresighting. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2009. Vol. 76, No. 3, p. 327–338.
18. DAVOUDI, Simin; WISHARDT, Michelle y STRANGE, Ian. The ageing of future: Demographic scenarios of Europe ́s future. En: Futures. Oc- tober 2010. Vol. 42, No. 8, p.794–803.
19. DE BRABANDERE, Luc y INY. Alan. Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. No- vember 2010. Vol. 77, No. 9, p.1506–1512.
20. DEVEZA, Tessalano; LEPOIRE, David; MATIAS, Joa; SILVA, Abilio.Ener- gy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm. En: Futures. Februar 2008. Vol. 40, No. 1, p. 1–16.
21. FORGE, Simon; BLACKMAN, Colin y BOHLIN, Eric. Constructing and using scenarios to forecast demand for future mobile communi- cations services. En: Foresight.2006. Vol. 8, No.3, p. 35-54.
22. GODET, Michel y DURANCE, Philippe. La prospective Estratégica para las empresas y territorios. Traducido por Karel García Cortina. Paris: Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Educación, la Cien- cia y la Cultura. 2011. 157p.
23. GLENN, Jerome, y GORDON, Theodore. Three alternative Middle East peace scenarios. Foresight. 2008. Vol. 7, No. 2, p. 8-20.
24. GNATZY, Tobias y MOSER, Roger. Scenario development for an evol- ving health insurance industry in rural India: INPUT for business mo- del innovation. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Mayo 2012. Vol. 79, No. 4, p. 688–699.
25. GROSSMAN, Iris. Three scenarios for the greater Hamburg region. En: Futures. February 2006. Vol. 38, No. 1, p. 31–49.
26. HASLAUER, Eva; BIBERACHER, Markus y BLASCHKE, Thomas. GIS-based Backcasting: An innovative method for parameterisation of sustainable spatial planning and resource management. En: Futures. May 2012. Vol. 44, No. 4, p.292–302.
27. LEE, Du Hee; PARK, Sang Yong; KIM Jong Wook y LEE, Seong Kon. Analysis on the feedback effect for the diffusion of innovative tech- nologies focusing on the green car. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2013. Vol. 80, No. 3, p.498–509.
28. HEINONEN, Sirkka y LLAUTTAMÄKI, Vile. Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions. En: Foresight. 2012. Vol. 14, No. 4, p.304-315.
29. HERNANDEZ SAMPIERI, Roberto, FERNÁNDEZ, Carlos y BAPTIS- TA, Pilar. Metodología de la Investigación. México: MC Graw Hill.2003. 705p.
30. HILLMAN, Karl y SANDEN, Bjorn. Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007–2020.En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. October 2008. Vol. 75, No.8, p. 1279–1302.
31. HINES, Andy. The futures of futures: a Scenario salon. En Fore- sight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 4, p.28-35.
32. INAYATULLAH, Sohail. Alternative future of transport. En: Fore- sight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 1, p.34-43.
33. KAMEOKA, Akio; YOKOO, Yoshiko y KUWAHARA, Terutaka. A cha- llenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. July 2004. Vol. 71, No. 6, p. 579–598.
34. KELLY, Ruth; SIRR, Locan y RATCLIFFE, John. Future thinking to achieve sustainable development at local level in Ireland. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No. 2, p. 80-90.
35. VAN ́T KLOOSTER, Susan y VAN ASSELT, Marjolein. Practising the scenario-axes technique. En: Futures. February 2006. Vol. 38, no. 1, p. 15–30.
36. KUHLMANN, Stefan y EDLER, Jakob. Scenarios of Technology and innovation policies in Europe: Investigating future governance. En: Te- chnological forecasting and Social Change. September 2003. Vol. 70, No. 7, p. 619-637.
37. LENNERT, Moritz y ROBERT, Jaques. he territorial futures of Europe: “Trends”, “Competition” or “Cohesion”. En: Futures. October 2010. Vol. 42, no. 8, p. 833–845.
38. GOMEZ-LIMÓN, José; GÓMEZ-RAMOS, Almudena y SANCHEZ, Gabriela. Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level. En: Futures. Vol. 41, No.5, p. 313–324.
39. MAHMUD, Jaizuluddin. City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bu- lungan development plan. En: Futures, Vol 43, No. 7, p. 697–706.
40. GARCIA, Juan M. Teoría y ejercicios prácticos de dinámica de siste- mas. 2° ed. Barcelona: Juan Martin García. 2006. 299p.
41. MAY, Graham. The future of financial services in Europe. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No. 5, p. 271-280.
42. MONTGOMERY, Alexandra. US Families 2025: In search of future fa- milies. En: Futures, Vol. 40, No 4, p. 377–387.
43. MORTENSEN, Jorgen y VILELLA-VILA, Marta. The future of emplo- yment supply and demand in social Europe. En. Futures. September 2012. Vol. 44, no. 7, p. 671–677.
44. NASRUDDIN, Ellisha; BUSTAMI, Reevany e Inayatullah, Sohail. Trans- formative foresight: Universiti Sains Malaysia leads the way. En: Futu- res. February 2012. Vol. 44, No. 1, p.36–45.
45. NIEWÖHNER, J.; WIEDEMANN, P.; KARGER, C.; SCHICKTANZ, S. y TANNERT, C. Participatory prognostics in Germany—developing citizen scenarios for the relationship between biomedicine and the economy in 2014. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. February de 2005. Vol. 72, No. 2, p. 195–211.
46. ÖZKAYNAK, Begun y RODRIGUEZ-LABAJOS, Beatriz. Multi-scale interaction in local scenario-building: A methodological framework. En: Futures. November 2010. Vol. 42, No. 9, p.995–1006.
47. PAGANI, Margherita. Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling. En: Te- chnological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2009. Vol. 76, no. 3, p. 382–395.
48. PINTO MARTINS, Pérsio; GAMA BOVENTURA Joao; FISCHMANN, Adalberto; KRAMER COSTA, BENNY y GIOVINAZZO, RENATA. Scenarios for the Brazilian road freight transport industry. En: Fore- sight. 2012. Vol.14, No. 3, p. 207-224.
49. POPPER, Rafael. Metodología de la Prospectiva. En: Manual de Pros- pectiva Tecnológica. Conceptos y prácticas. 2011. México: Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, p.85-138.
50. RAMOS, Isabel. Exploratory landscape scenarios in the formulation of landscape quality objectives. En: Futures. September 2010. Vol. 42, No. 7, p. 682–692.
51. RHISIART, Martin. Exploring the future for arts and culture organiza- tions through scenarios and vignettes. En: Futures. June 2013.Vol 50, No. Especial, p. 15–24.
52. RIKKONEN, Pasi y TAPIO, Petri. Future prospects of alternative agro- based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quan- titative and qualitative Delphi data. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2009. Vol. 76, No. 7, p. 978–990.
53. RODRIGUEZ-RODRIGUEZ, Raúl; ALFARO, Juan; ORTIZ, Ángel, CA- ROT, José; y JABALOYES, José. Building internal business scenarios based on real data from a performance measurement system. En: Te- chnological Forecasting and Social Change. January 2010. Vol. 77, No. 1, p. 50–62.
54. SARITAS, Ozcan y AYLEN, Jonathan. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2010. Vol. 77, No. 7, p.1061–1075.
55. SARITAS, Ozcan y KEENAN, Michael. Broken promises and/or tech- no dreams? The future of health and social services in Europe. Fore- sight.2004. Vol. 6, No. 5, p. 281-291.
56. SAURIN, Ruth y RATCLIFFE, John. Using an adaptive scenarios approach to establish strategies for tomorrow ́s workplace. En: Fore- sight. 2011. Vol. 13, No.4, p. 46-63.
57. SCHWAB, Patrick; CERUTTI, Fabio y VON REIBNITZ, Ute. Using sce- narios to shape the future of agricultural research. En: Foresight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 1, p. 55-61.
58. SHAKWEER, Abeer y YOUSSEF, Reham. Futures studies in Egypt: Wa- ter Foresight 2025. En: Foresight. 2007. Vol. 9, No. 4, p. 22-32.
59. SHERRAZ, Umar; INAYATULLAH, Sohail y SHAH, Ali. E- health futu- res in Bangladesh. En: Foresight. 2012. Vol 15, No. 3, p. 177-189.
60. SMITH, Ricardo; VESGA, Daniel; CADENA, Angela; BOMAN, Ulf; LARSEN, Erik y DYNER, Isaac. Energy scenarios for Colombia: pro- cess and content. En: Futures. February 2005. Vol. 37, No. 1, p. 1–17.
61. SOETANTO, Robby; DAINTY, Andrew; GOODIER, CHris, y AUSTIN, Simon. Unravelling the complexity of collective mental models: A me- thod for developing and analysing scenarios in multi-organisational contexts. En: Futures. October 201. Vol. 43, No. 8, p. 890–907.
62. SON, Hyeonju. (2013). Alternative future scenarios for South Korea in 2030. En: Futures. August 2013. Vol. 52, p. 27–41.
63. SPANDOLINI, Michael. Benchmarking. Bogota: Grupo Editorial Nor- ma. 1994, 248p.
64. STEENHOF, Paul y FULTON, Whitman. Scenario development in China’s electricity sector. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Julio 2007. Vol. 74, No. 6, p. 779–797.
65. STRATYIGEA, A. y GIAOUTZI, M. Linking global to regional sce- narios in foresight. En: Futures. December 2012. Vol. 44, No. 10 pp. 847–859.
66. TAPINOS, Eftstathios. Scenario planning at business unit level. En: Fu- tures. March 2013. Vol.47, p. 17–27.
67. TSENG, Fang-Mei; CHENG, Ai-Chia y PENG, Yi-Ning. Assessing mar- ket penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the tech- nological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2009. Vol. 76, No. 7, p. 897–909.
68. VAN BREE, B.; VERBONG, G.P.; y KRAMER. G.J. A multi-level perspec- tive on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. May 2010. Vol. 77, No. 4, p. 529–540.
69. VAN DER GRACHT, Heiko y DARKOW, Inge – Lena. The future role of logistics for global wealth - scenarios and discontinuities until 2025. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol. 15, No. 5, p.405-419.
70. VAN DER LIJN, Jair. Scenarios for Sudan in 2012: crash or happy take -off. En: Foresight. 2010. Vol. 12, No. 4, p. 3-22.
71. VARUM, Celeste Amorin; MELO, Carla; ALVARENGA, Antonio y SOEIRO, Paulo. (2011). Scenarios and possibles futures for hospitality and tourism. En: Foresight. 2011. Vol. 13 No. 1, p. 19-35.
72. VARUM, Celeste, y MELO, Carla. Directions in scenario planning lite- rature – A review of the past decades. En. Futures. May 2010. Vol. 42, No. 4, p.335 – 369.
73. VERFAILLIE, Kristof; Vander Beken Tom. Interesting times: European criminal markets in 2015. En: Futures. June 2008. Vol. 40, No. 5, p.438– 450.
74. VIVANCO - ARANDA, Miroslava; MOJICA, José; FRANCISCO, Javier y Martínez - Cordero, Francisco. Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2011. Vol. 78, No. 3, p. 481–497.
75. WANG, Ming-Yeu; y Lan, Wei-Ting. Combined forecast process: Com- bining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2007. Vol. 74, No. 3, p. 357–378.
76. WANGEL, Josefin; GUSTAFSSON, Stina y SVANE, Orjan. Goal-ba- sed socio-technical scenarios: Greening the mobility practices in the Stockholm City District of Bromma, Sweden. En: Futures. March 2013. Vol. 47, p.79–92.
77. WIEK, Amin; GASSER, Lukas y SIEGRIST, Michael. Systemic scenarios of nanotechnology: Sustainable governance of emerging technologies. En: Futures. Junio 2009. Vol. 41, No. 5, p. 284–300.
78. fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspecti- ve-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process. En: Technological forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 70, No. 4, p. 359- 384.
79. WRIGHT, David. Alternative futures: AmI scenarios and Minority Re- port. En: Futures. Junio 2008. Vol. 40, No. 5, p. 473–488.
80. YOKOO, Yoshiko y OKUWADA, Kumi. Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol.15, No.1, p. 6-18.
2. BAKER, Katherine; COX, Deborah y SVEINSDOTTIR, Thordis. Fore- sight on the future of public research metrology in Europe. En: Fore- sight. 2011. Vol. 13, No.1, p. 5-18.
3. BALLANTYNE, Joe; CURRY, Andrew y SUMNER, Andy. (2011). Africa 2010-2020: poverty reduction beyond the global crisis. En: Foresight, 2011. Vol. 13. No. 3, p. 24-37.
4. BAÑULS, Victor; TURROF, Murray y ROXANNE, Starr. Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. November 2013. Vol. 80, No. 9, p. 1756–1774.
5. BAÑULS, Victor y SALMERÓN, José. A Scenario-Based Assessment Model-SBAM. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Julio 2007. Vol. 74, No 6, p. 750–762.
6. BEZOLD, Clem. Lessons from using scenarios for strategic Foresight. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. November 2010. Vol. 77, No 8, p. 1513–1518.
7. BLACKMAN, Colin. Stumbling along or grave new world? Toward Europe ́s information society. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No 5, p.261- 270.
8. BLASS, Eddie; THORNTON, Marie y BERNICE, Rawling. Future sce- narios for a depressed region of England: the role of education in creating alternative futures. En: Foresight. 2011. Vol. 13, No. 6, p.3-17.
9. BLASS, Eddie; JASMAN, Anne y SHELLEY, Steve. Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK. En: Futures. June 2010. Vol. 42, No. 5, P. 445–453.
10. BOUWMAN, H. y VANDER DER DUIN, P. Technological forecasting and scenario matter. En: Foresight.2003. Vol. 5, No.4, p. 8-19.
11. BRUNNHUBER, Stefan; FINK, Alexander, y KUHLE, Jens Peter. The financial system matters: future perspectives and scenarios for a sus- tainable future. En: Futures. May 2005. Vol 37, No. 4, p.317–332.
12. CAIRNS, George; WRIGHT, George; BRADFIELD, Ron; VAN DER HEIDEN, Kees y BURT, George. Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning. En: Technological Fore- casting and Social Change. March 2004. Vol. 71, No. 3, p.217-238.
13. CAIRNS, George; AHMED, Iftekhar; MULLETT, Jean y WRIGHT, George. Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical re- flections on a climate change scenarios case study.En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. January 2013. Vol. 80, No. 1, p. 1–10.
14. CASTORENA, David; ROMERO, Geovanny Y VILLARREAL, Ama- do. Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol. 15, No. 6, p.492-516.
15. CEPNI, Elif. Does convergence matter if it takes 100 years? Different scenarios of convergence. En: Futures. October 2010. Vol. 42, No. 8, p. 882–894.
16. COLE, María, y KUHLMANN, Andrés. A scenario-based approach to airport security. En: Futures. May 2012. Vol. 44, No.4, p. 319–327.
17. CZAPLICKA-KOLARZ, Krystina; STANCZYK, Krzysztof; y KAPUS- TA, Krzysztof. Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector de- velopment in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of tech- nology foresighting. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2009. Vol. 76, No. 3, p. 327–338.
18. DAVOUDI, Simin; WISHARDT, Michelle y STRANGE, Ian. The ageing of future: Demographic scenarios of Europe ́s future. En: Futures. Oc- tober 2010. Vol. 42, No. 8, p.794–803.
19. DE BRABANDERE, Luc y INY. Alan. Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. No- vember 2010. Vol. 77, No. 9, p.1506–1512.
20. DEVEZA, Tessalano; LEPOIRE, David; MATIAS, Joa; SILVA, Abilio.Ener- gy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm. En: Futures. Februar 2008. Vol. 40, No. 1, p. 1–16.
21. FORGE, Simon; BLACKMAN, Colin y BOHLIN, Eric. Constructing and using scenarios to forecast demand for future mobile communi- cations services. En: Foresight.2006. Vol. 8, No.3, p. 35-54.
22. GODET, Michel y DURANCE, Philippe. La prospective Estratégica para las empresas y territorios. Traducido por Karel García Cortina. Paris: Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Educación, la Cien- cia y la Cultura. 2011. 157p.
23. GLENN, Jerome, y GORDON, Theodore. Three alternative Middle East peace scenarios. Foresight. 2008. Vol. 7, No. 2, p. 8-20.
24. GNATZY, Tobias y MOSER, Roger. Scenario development for an evol- ving health insurance industry in rural India: INPUT for business mo- del innovation. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Mayo 2012. Vol. 79, No. 4, p. 688–699.
25. GROSSMAN, Iris. Three scenarios for the greater Hamburg region. En: Futures. February 2006. Vol. 38, No. 1, p. 31–49.
26. HASLAUER, Eva; BIBERACHER, Markus y BLASCHKE, Thomas. GIS-based Backcasting: An innovative method for parameterisation of sustainable spatial planning and resource management. En: Futures. May 2012. Vol. 44, No. 4, p.292–302.
27. LEE, Du Hee; PARK, Sang Yong; KIM Jong Wook y LEE, Seong Kon. Analysis on the feedback effect for the diffusion of innovative tech- nologies focusing on the green car. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2013. Vol. 80, No. 3, p.498–509.
28. HEINONEN, Sirkka y LLAUTTAMÄKI, Vile. Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions. En: Foresight. 2012. Vol. 14, No. 4, p.304-315.
29. HERNANDEZ SAMPIERI, Roberto, FERNÁNDEZ, Carlos y BAPTIS- TA, Pilar. Metodología de la Investigación. México: MC Graw Hill.2003. 705p.
30. HILLMAN, Karl y SANDEN, Bjorn. Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007–2020.En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. October 2008. Vol. 75, No.8, p. 1279–1302.
31. HINES, Andy. The futures of futures: a Scenario salon. En Fore- sight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 4, p.28-35.
32. INAYATULLAH, Sohail. Alternative future of transport. En: Fore- sight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 1, p.34-43.
33. KAMEOKA, Akio; YOKOO, Yoshiko y KUWAHARA, Terutaka. A cha- llenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. July 2004. Vol. 71, No. 6, p. 579–598.
34. KELLY, Ruth; SIRR, Locan y RATCLIFFE, John. Future thinking to achieve sustainable development at local level in Ireland. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No. 2, p. 80-90.
35. VAN ́T KLOOSTER, Susan y VAN ASSELT, Marjolein. Practising the scenario-axes technique. En: Futures. February 2006. Vol. 38, no. 1, p. 15–30.
36. KUHLMANN, Stefan y EDLER, Jakob. Scenarios of Technology and innovation policies in Europe: Investigating future governance. En: Te- chnological forecasting and Social Change. September 2003. Vol. 70, No. 7, p. 619-637.
37. LENNERT, Moritz y ROBERT, Jaques. he territorial futures of Europe: “Trends”, “Competition” or “Cohesion”. En: Futures. October 2010. Vol. 42, no. 8, p. 833–845.
38. GOMEZ-LIMÓN, José; GÓMEZ-RAMOS, Almudena y SANCHEZ, Gabriela. Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level. En: Futures. Vol. 41, No.5, p. 313–324.
39. MAHMUD, Jaizuluddin. City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bu- lungan development plan. En: Futures, Vol 43, No. 7, p. 697–706.
40. GARCIA, Juan M. Teoría y ejercicios prácticos de dinámica de siste- mas. 2° ed. Barcelona: Juan Martin García. 2006. 299p.
41. MAY, Graham. The future of financial services in Europe. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No. 5, p. 271-280.
42. MONTGOMERY, Alexandra. US Families 2025: In search of future fa- milies. En: Futures, Vol. 40, No 4, p. 377–387.
43. MORTENSEN, Jorgen y VILELLA-VILA, Marta. The future of emplo- yment supply and demand in social Europe. En. Futures. September 2012. Vol. 44, no. 7, p. 671–677.
44. NASRUDDIN, Ellisha; BUSTAMI, Reevany e Inayatullah, Sohail. Trans- formative foresight: Universiti Sains Malaysia leads the way. En: Futu- res. February 2012. Vol. 44, No. 1, p.36–45.
45. NIEWÖHNER, J.; WIEDEMANN, P.; KARGER, C.; SCHICKTANZ, S. y TANNERT, C. Participatory prognostics in Germany—developing citizen scenarios for the relationship between biomedicine and the economy in 2014. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. February de 2005. Vol. 72, No. 2, p. 195–211.
46. ÖZKAYNAK, Begun y RODRIGUEZ-LABAJOS, Beatriz. Multi-scale interaction in local scenario-building: A methodological framework. En: Futures. November 2010. Vol. 42, No. 9, p.995–1006.
47. PAGANI, Margherita. Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling. En: Te- chnological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2009. Vol. 76, no. 3, p. 382–395.
48. PINTO MARTINS, Pérsio; GAMA BOVENTURA Joao; FISCHMANN, Adalberto; KRAMER COSTA, BENNY y GIOVINAZZO, RENATA. Scenarios for the Brazilian road freight transport industry. En: Fore- sight. 2012. Vol.14, No. 3, p. 207-224.
49. POPPER, Rafael. Metodología de la Prospectiva. En: Manual de Pros- pectiva Tecnológica. Conceptos y prácticas. 2011. México: Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, p.85-138.
50. RAMOS, Isabel. Exploratory landscape scenarios in the formulation of landscape quality objectives. En: Futures. September 2010. Vol. 42, No. 7, p. 682–692.
51. RHISIART, Martin. Exploring the future for arts and culture organiza- tions through scenarios and vignettes. En: Futures. June 2013.Vol 50, No. Especial, p. 15–24.
52. RIKKONEN, Pasi y TAPIO, Petri. Future prospects of alternative agro- based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quan- titative and qualitative Delphi data. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2009. Vol. 76, No. 7, p. 978–990.
53. RODRIGUEZ-RODRIGUEZ, Raúl; ALFARO, Juan; ORTIZ, Ángel, CA- ROT, José; y JABALOYES, José. Building internal business scenarios based on real data from a performance measurement system. En: Te- chnological Forecasting and Social Change. January 2010. Vol. 77, No. 1, p. 50–62.
54. SARITAS, Ozcan y AYLEN, Jonathan. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2010. Vol. 77, No. 7, p.1061–1075.
55. SARITAS, Ozcan y KEENAN, Michael. Broken promises and/or tech- no dreams? The future of health and social services in Europe. Fore- sight.2004. Vol. 6, No. 5, p. 281-291.
56. SAURIN, Ruth y RATCLIFFE, John. Using an adaptive scenarios approach to establish strategies for tomorrow ́s workplace. En: Fore- sight. 2011. Vol. 13, No.4, p. 46-63.
57. SCHWAB, Patrick; CERUTTI, Fabio y VON REIBNITZ, Ute. Using sce- narios to shape the future of agricultural research. En: Foresight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 1, p. 55-61.
58. SHAKWEER, Abeer y YOUSSEF, Reham. Futures studies in Egypt: Wa- ter Foresight 2025. En: Foresight. 2007. Vol. 9, No. 4, p. 22-32.
59. SHERRAZ, Umar; INAYATULLAH, Sohail y SHAH, Ali. E- health futu- res in Bangladesh. En: Foresight. 2012. Vol 15, No. 3, p. 177-189.
60. SMITH, Ricardo; VESGA, Daniel; CADENA, Angela; BOMAN, Ulf; LARSEN, Erik y DYNER, Isaac. Energy scenarios for Colombia: pro- cess and content. En: Futures. February 2005. Vol. 37, No. 1, p. 1–17.
61. SOETANTO, Robby; DAINTY, Andrew; GOODIER, CHris, y AUSTIN, Simon. Unravelling the complexity of collective mental models: A me- thod for developing and analysing scenarios in multi-organisational contexts. En: Futures. October 201. Vol. 43, No. 8, p. 890–907.
62. SON, Hyeonju. (2013). Alternative future scenarios for South Korea in 2030. En: Futures. August 2013. Vol. 52, p. 27–41.
63. SPANDOLINI, Michael. Benchmarking. Bogota: Grupo Editorial Nor- ma. 1994, 248p.
64. STEENHOF, Paul y FULTON, Whitman. Scenario development in China’s electricity sector. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Julio 2007. Vol. 74, No. 6, p. 779–797.
65. STRATYIGEA, A. y GIAOUTZI, M. Linking global to regional sce- narios in foresight. En: Futures. December 2012. Vol. 44, No. 10 pp. 847–859.
66. TAPINOS, Eftstathios. Scenario planning at business unit level. En: Fu- tures. March 2013. Vol.47, p. 17–27.
67. TSENG, Fang-Mei; CHENG, Ai-Chia y PENG, Yi-Ning. Assessing mar- ket penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the tech- nological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2009. Vol. 76, No. 7, p. 897–909.
68. VAN BREE, B.; VERBONG, G.P.; y KRAMER. G.J. A multi-level perspec- tive on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. May 2010. Vol. 77, No. 4, p. 529–540.
69. VAN DER GRACHT, Heiko y DARKOW, Inge – Lena. The future role of logistics for global wealth - scenarios and discontinuities until 2025. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol. 15, No. 5, p.405-419.
70. VAN DER LIJN, Jair. Scenarios for Sudan in 2012: crash or happy take -off. En: Foresight. 2010. Vol. 12, No. 4, p. 3-22.
71. VARUM, Celeste Amorin; MELO, Carla; ALVARENGA, Antonio y SOEIRO, Paulo. (2011). Scenarios and possibles futures for hospitality and tourism. En: Foresight. 2011. Vol. 13 No. 1, p. 19-35.
72. VARUM, Celeste, y MELO, Carla. Directions in scenario planning lite- rature – A review of the past decades. En. Futures. May 2010. Vol. 42, No. 4, p.335 – 369.
73. VERFAILLIE, Kristof; Vander Beken Tom. Interesting times: European criminal markets in 2015. En: Futures. June 2008. Vol. 40, No. 5, p.438– 450.
74. VIVANCO - ARANDA, Miroslava; MOJICA, José; FRANCISCO, Javier y Martínez - Cordero, Francisco. Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2011. Vol. 78, No. 3, p. 481–497.
75. WANG, Ming-Yeu; y Lan, Wei-Ting. Combined forecast process: Com- bining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2007. Vol. 74, No. 3, p. 357–378.
76. WANGEL, Josefin; GUSTAFSSON, Stina y SVANE, Orjan. Goal-ba- sed socio-technical scenarios: Greening the mobility practices in the Stockholm City District of Bromma, Sweden. En: Futures. March 2013. Vol. 47, p.79–92.
77. WIEK, Amin; GASSER, Lukas y SIEGRIST, Michael. Systemic scenarios of nanotechnology: Sustainable governance of emerging technologies. En: Futures. Junio 2009. Vol. 41, No. 5, p. 284–300.
78. fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspecti- ve-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process. En: Technological forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 70, No. 4, p. 359- 384.
79. WRIGHT, David. Alternative futures: AmI scenarios and Minority Re- port. En: Futures. Junio 2008. Vol. 40, No. 5, p. 473–488.
80. YOKOO, Yoshiko y OKUWADA, Kumi. Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol.15, No.1, p. 6-18.
Downloads
Published
2015-06-01
Issue
Section
Articles
How to Cite
Selection of methods for building future scenarios. (2015). Entramado, 11(1), 32-46. https://doi.org/10.18041/entramado.2015v11n1.21113
