Selección de los métodos para la construcción de los escenarios de futuro
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18041/entramado.2015v11n1.21113Palavras-chave:
Métodos, Escenarios, Naturaleza, Características, SelecciónResumo
El propósito de este artículo es reflexionar sobre cómo son seleccionados los diferentes métodos para la construcción de los escenarios de futuro; de acuerdo con la naturaleza de estos (cuantitativa, cualitativa y mixta) y las características del ejercicio que se realiza (cobertura regional, horizonte de tiempo, número de escenarios y patrocinador). Se revisaron (2.603) abstract de artículos publicados en revistas indexadas durante el periodo comprendido entre 2003-2013; de los cuales (1.009) corresponden a la revista Futures (1.169), a la revista Technological Forecasting and Social Change y (425) a la revista Foresight; con el fin de seleccionar aquellos donde se presentaban ejercicios sobre escenarios de futuro y evaluar en estos la frecuencia del uso de los métodos de acuerdo con su naturaleza y las características del ejercicio. Se representaron gráficamente las diferentes combinaciones propuestas para dar respuesta al propósito dela investigación, hallándose que la naturaleza del método tiene una gran influencia y que las características ejercen una baja o muy baja influencia en la escogencia de los métodos.
Downloads
Os dados de download ainda não estão disponíveis.
Referências
1. AL-SALEH, Yasser. Renewable energy scenarios for major oil-produ- cing nations: The case of Saudi Arabia. En: Futures. November 2009. Vol. 41, No. 9, p.650–662.
2. BAKER, Katherine; COX, Deborah y SVEINSDOTTIR, Thordis. Fore- sight on the future of public research metrology in Europe. En: Fore- sight. 2011. Vol. 13, No.1, p. 5-18.
3. BALLANTYNE, Joe; CURRY, Andrew y SUMNER, Andy. (2011). Africa 2010-2020: poverty reduction beyond the global crisis. En: Foresight, 2011. Vol. 13. No. 3, p. 24-37.
4. BAÑULS, Victor; TURROF, Murray y ROXANNE, Starr. Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. November 2013. Vol. 80, No. 9, p. 1756–1774.
5. BAÑULS, Victor y SALMERÓN, José. A Scenario-Based Assessment Model-SBAM. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Julio 2007. Vol. 74, No 6, p. 750–762.
6. BEZOLD, Clem. Lessons from using scenarios for strategic Foresight. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. November 2010. Vol. 77, No 8, p. 1513–1518.
7. BLACKMAN, Colin. Stumbling along or grave new world? Toward Europe ́s information society. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No 5, p.261- 270.
8. BLASS, Eddie; THORNTON, Marie y BERNICE, Rawling. Future sce- narios for a depressed region of England: the role of education in creating alternative futures. En: Foresight. 2011. Vol. 13, No. 6, p.3-17.
9. BLASS, Eddie; JASMAN, Anne y SHELLEY, Steve. Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK. En: Futures. June 2010. Vol. 42, No. 5, P. 445–453.
10. BOUWMAN, H. y VANDER DER DUIN, P. Technological forecasting and scenario matter. En: Foresight.2003. Vol. 5, No.4, p. 8-19.
11. BRUNNHUBER, Stefan; FINK, Alexander, y KUHLE, Jens Peter. The financial system matters: future perspectives and scenarios for a sus- tainable future. En: Futures. May 2005. Vol 37, No. 4, p.317–332.
12. CAIRNS, George; WRIGHT, George; BRADFIELD, Ron; VAN DER HEIDEN, Kees y BURT, George. Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning. En: Technological Fore- casting and Social Change. March 2004. Vol. 71, No. 3, p.217-238.
13. CAIRNS, George; AHMED, Iftekhar; MULLETT, Jean y WRIGHT, George. Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical re- flections on a climate change scenarios case study.En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. January 2013. Vol. 80, No. 1, p. 1–10.
14. CASTORENA, David; ROMERO, Geovanny Y VILLARREAL, Ama- do. Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol. 15, No. 6, p.492-516.
15. CEPNI, Elif. Does convergence matter if it takes 100 years? Different scenarios of convergence. En: Futures. October 2010. Vol. 42, No. 8, p. 882–894.
16. COLE, María, y KUHLMANN, Andrés. A scenario-based approach to airport security. En: Futures. May 2012. Vol. 44, No.4, p. 319–327.
17. CZAPLICKA-KOLARZ, Krystina; STANCZYK, Krzysztof; y KAPUS- TA, Krzysztof. Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector de- velopment in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of tech- nology foresighting. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2009. Vol. 76, No. 3, p. 327–338.
18. DAVOUDI, Simin; WISHARDT, Michelle y STRANGE, Ian. The ageing of future: Demographic scenarios of Europe ́s future. En: Futures. Oc- tober 2010. Vol. 42, No. 8, p.794–803.
19. DE BRABANDERE, Luc y INY. Alan. Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. No- vember 2010. Vol. 77, No. 9, p.1506–1512.
20. DEVEZA, Tessalano; LEPOIRE, David; MATIAS, Joa; SILVA, Abilio.Ener- gy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm. En: Futures. Februar 2008. Vol. 40, No. 1, p. 1–16.
21. FORGE, Simon; BLACKMAN, Colin y BOHLIN, Eric. Constructing and using scenarios to forecast demand for future mobile communi- cations services. En: Foresight.2006. Vol. 8, No.3, p. 35-54.
22. GODET, Michel y DURANCE, Philippe. La prospective Estratégica para las empresas y territorios. Traducido por Karel García Cortina. Paris: Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Educación, la Cien- cia y la Cultura. 2011. 157p.
23. GLENN, Jerome, y GORDON, Theodore. Three alternative Middle East peace scenarios. Foresight. 2008. Vol. 7, No. 2, p. 8-20.
24. GNATZY, Tobias y MOSER, Roger. Scenario development for an evol- ving health insurance industry in rural India: INPUT for business mo- del innovation. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Mayo 2012. Vol. 79, No. 4, p. 688–699.
25. GROSSMAN, Iris. Three scenarios for the greater Hamburg region. En: Futures. February 2006. Vol. 38, No. 1, p. 31–49.
26. HASLAUER, Eva; BIBERACHER, Markus y BLASCHKE, Thomas. GIS-based Backcasting: An innovative method for parameterisation of sustainable spatial planning and resource management. En: Futures. May 2012. Vol. 44, No. 4, p.292–302.
27. LEE, Du Hee; PARK, Sang Yong; KIM Jong Wook y LEE, Seong Kon. Analysis on the feedback effect for the diffusion of innovative tech- nologies focusing on the green car. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2013. Vol. 80, No. 3, p.498–509.
28. HEINONEN, Sirkka y LLAUTTAMÄKI, Vile. Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions. En: Foresight. 2012. Vol. 14, No. 4, p.304-315.
29. HERNANDEZ SAMPIERI, Roberto, FERNÁNDEZ, Carlos y BAPTIS- TA, Pilar. Metodología de la Investigación. México: MC Graw Hill.2003. 705p.
30. HILLMAN, Karl y SANDEN, Bjorn. Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007–2020.En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. October 2008. Vol. 75, No.8, p. 1279–1302.
31. HINES, Andy. The futures of futures: a Scenario salon. En Fore- sight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 4, p.28-35.
32. INAYATULLAH, Sohail. Alternative future of transport. En: Fore- sight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 1, p.34-43.
33. KAMEOKA, Akio; YOKOO, Yoshiko y KUWAHARA, Terutaka. A cha- llenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. July 2004. Vol. 71, No. 6, p. 579–598.
34. KELLY, Ruth; SIRR, Locan y RATCLIFFE, John. Future thinking to achieve sustainable development at local level in Ireland. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No. 2, p. 80-90.
35. VAN ́T KLOOSTER, Susan y VAN ASSELT, Marjolein. Practising the scenario-axes technique. En: Futures. February 2006. Vol. 38, no. 1, p. 15–30.
36. KUHLMANN, Stefan y EDLER, Jakob. Scenarios of Technology and innovation policies in Europe: Investigating future governance. En: Te- chnological forecasting and Social Change. September 2003. Vol. 70, No. 7, p. 619-637.
37. LENNERT, Moritz y ROBERT, Jaques. he territorial futures of Europe: “Trends”, “Competition” or “Cohesion”. En: Futures. October 2010. Vol. 42, no. 8, p. 833–845.
38. GOMEZ-LIMÓN, José; GÓMEZ-RAMOS, Almudena y SANCHEZ, Gabriela. Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level. En: Futures. Vol. 41, No.5, p. 313–324.
39. MAHMUD, Jaizuluddin. City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bu- lungan development plan. En: Futures, Vol 43, No. 7, p. 697–706.
40. GARCIA, Juan M. Teoría y ejercicios prácticos de dinámica de siste- mas. 2° ed. Barcelona: Juan Martin García. 2006. 299p.
41. MAY, Graham. The future of financial services in Europe. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No. 5, p. 271-280.
42. MONTGOMERY, Alexandra. US Families 2025: In search of future fa- milies. En: Futures, Vol. 40, No 4, p. 377–387.
43. MORTENSEN, Jorgen y VILELLA-VILA, Marta. The future of emplo- yment supply and demand in social Europe. En. Futures. September 2012. Vol. 44, no. 7, p. 671–677.
44. NASRUDDIN, Ellisha; BUSTAMI, Reevany e Inayatullah, Sohail. Trans- formative foresight: Universiti Sains Malaysia leads the way. En: Futu- res. February 2012. Vol. 44, No. 1, p.36–45.
45. NIEWÖHNER, J.; WIEDEMANN, P.; KARGER, C.; SCHICKTANZ, S. y TANNERT, C. Participatory prognostics in Germany—developing citizen scenarios for the relationship between biomedicine and the economy in 2014. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. February de 2005. Vol. 72, No. 2, p. 195–211.
46. ÖZKAYNAK, Begun y RODRIGUEZ-LABAJOS, Beatriz. Multi-scale interaction in local scenario-building: A methodological framework. En: Futures. November 2010. Vol. 42, No. 9, p.995–1006.
47. PAGANI, Margherita. Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling. En: Te- chnological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2009. Vol. 76, no. 3, p. 382–395.
48. PINTO MARTINS, Pérsio; GAMA BOVENTURA Joao; FISCHMANN, Adalberto; KRAMER COSTA, BENNY y GIOVINAZZO, RENATA. Scenarios for the Brazilian road freight transport industry. En: Fore- sight. 2012. Vol.14, No. 3, p. 207-224.
49. POPPER, Rafael. Metodología de la Prospectiva. En: Manual de Pros- pectiva Tecnológica. Conceptos y prácticas. 2011. México: Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, p.85-138.
50. RAMOS, Isabel. Exploratory landscape scenarios in the formulation of landscape quality objectives. En: Futures. September 2010. Vol. 42, No. 7, p. 682–692.
51. RHISIART, Martin. Exploring the future for arts and culture organiza- tions through scenarios and vignettes. En: Futures. June 2013.Vol 50, No. Especial, p. 15–24.
52. RIKKONEN, Pasi y TAPIO, Petri. Future prospects of alternative agro- based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quan- titative and qualitative Delphi data. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2009. Vol. 76, No. 7, p. 978–990.
53. RODRIGUEZ-RODRIGUEZ, Raúl; ALFARO, Juan; ORTIZ, Ángel, CA- ROT, José; y JABALOYES, José. Building internal business scenarios based on real data from a performance measurement system. En: Te- chnological Forecasting and Social Change. January 2010. Vol. 77, No. 1, p. 50–62.
54. SARITAS, Ozcan y AYLEN, Jonathan. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2010. Vol. 77, No. 7, p.1061–1075.
55. SARITAS, Ozcan y KEENAN, Michael. Broken promises and/or tech- no dreams? The future of health and social services in Europe. Fore- sight.2004. Vol. 6, No. 5, p. 281-291.
56. SAURIN, Ruth y RATCLIFFE, John. Using an adaptive scenarios approach to establish strategies for tomorrow ́s workplace. En: Fore- sight. 2011. Vol. 13, No.4, p. 46-63.
57. SCHWAB, Patrick; CERUTTI, Fabio y VON REIBNITZ, Ute. Using sce- narios to shape the future of agricultural research. En: Foresight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 1, p. 55-61.
58. SHAKWEER, Abeer y YOUSSEF, Reham. Futures studies in Egypt: Wa- ter Foresight 2025. En: Foresight. 2007. Vol. 9, No. 4, p. 22-32.
59. SHERRAZ, Umar; INAYATULLAH, Sohail y SHAH, Ali. E- health futu- res in Bangladesh. En: Foresight. 2012. Vol 15, No. 3, p. 177-189.
60. SMITH, Ricardo; VESGA, Daniel; CADENA, Angela; BOMAN, Ulf; LARSEN, Erik y DYNER, Isaac. Energy scenarios for Colombia: pro- cess and content. En: Futures. February 2005. Vol. 37, No. 1, p. 1–17.
61. SOETANTO, Robby; DAINTY, Andrew; GOODIER, CHris, y AUSTIN, Simon. Unravelling the complexity of collective mental models: A me- thod for developing and analysing scenarios in multi-organisational contexts. En: Futures. October 201. Vol. 43, No. 8, p. 890–907.
62. SON, Hyeonju. (2013). Alternative future scenarios for South Korea in 2030. En: Futures. August 2013. Vol. 52, p. 27–41.
63. SPANDOLINI, Michael. Benchmarking. Bogota: Grupo Editorial Nor- ma. 1994, 248p.
64. STEENHOF, Paul y FULTON, Whitman. Scenario development in China’s electricity sector. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Julio 2007. Vol. 74, No. 6, p. 779–797.
65. STRATYIGEA, A. y GIAOUTZI, M. Linking global to regional sce- narios in foresight. En: Futures. December 2012. Vol. 44, No. 10 pp. 847–859.
66. TAPINOS, Eftstathios. Scenario planning at business unit level. En: Fu- tures. March 2013. Vol.47, p. 17–27.
67. TSENG, Fang-Mei; CHENG, Ai-Chia y PENG, Yi-Ning. Assessing mar- ket penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the tech- nological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2009. Vol. 76, No. 7, p. 897–909.
68. VAN BREE, B.; VERBONG, G.P.; y KRAMER. G.J. A multi-level perspec- tive on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. May 2010. Vol. 77, No. 4, p. 529–540.
69. VAN DER GRACHT, Heiko y DARKOW, Inge – Lena. The future role of logistics for global wealth - scenarios and discontinuities until 2025. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol. 15, No. 5, p.405-419.
70. VAN DER LIJN, Jair. Scenarios for Sudan in 2012: crash or happy take -off. En: Foresight. 2010. Vol. 12, No. 4, p. 3-22.
71. VARUM, Celeste Amorin; MELO, Carla; ALVARENGA, Antonio y SOEIRO, Paulo. (2011). Scenarios and possibles futures for hospitality and tourism. En: Foresight. 2011. Vol. 13 No. 1, p. 19-35.
72. VARUM, Celeste, y MELO, Carla. Directions in scenario planning lite- rature – A review of the past decades. En. Futures. May 2010. Vol. 42, No. 4, p.335 – 369.
73. VERFAILLIE, Kristof; Vander Beken Tom. Interesting times: European criminal markets in 2015. En: Futures. June 2008. Vol. 40, No. 5, p.438– 450.
74. VIVANCO - ARANDA, Miroslava; MOJICA, José; FRANCISCO, Javier y Martínez - Cordero, Francisco. Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2011. Vol. 78, No. 3, p. 481–497.
75. WANG, Ming-Yeu; y Lan, Wei-Ting. Combined forecast process: Com- bining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2007. Vol. 74, No. 3, p. 357–378.
76. WANGEL, Josefin; GUSTAFSSON, Stina y SVANE, Orjan. Goal-ba- sed socio-technical scenarios: Greening the mobility practices in the Stockholm City District of Bromma, Sweden. En: Futures. March 2013. Vol. 47, p.79–92.
77. WIEK, Amin; GASSER, Lukas y SIEGRIST, Michael. Systemic scenarios of nanotechnology: Sustainable governance of emerging technologies. En: Futures. Junio 2009. Vol. 41, No. 5, p. 284–300.
78. fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspecti- ve-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process. En: Technological forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 70, No. 4, p. 359- 384.
79. WRIGHT, David. Alternative futures: AmI scenarios and Minority Re- port. En: Futures. Junio 2008. Vol. 40, No. 5, p. 473–488.
80. YOKOO, Yoshiko y OKUWADA, Kumi. Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol.15, No.1, p. 6-18.
2. BAKER, Katherine; COX, Deborah y SVEINSDOTTIR, Thordis. Fore- sight on the future of public research metrology in Europe. En: Fore- sight. 2011. Vol. 13, No.1, p. 5-18.
3. BALLANTYNE, Joe; CURRY, Andrew y SUMNER, Andy. (2011). Africa 2010-2020: poverty reduction beyond the global crisis. En: Foresight, 2011. Vol. 13. No. 3, p. 24-37.
4. BAÑULS, Victor; TURROF, Murray y ROXANNE, Starr. Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. November 2013. Vol. 80, No. 9, p. 1756–1774.
5. BAÑULS, Victor y SALMERÓN, José. A Scenario-Based Assessment Model-SBAM. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Julio 2007. Vol. 74, No 6, p. 750–762.
6. BEZOLD, Clem. Lessons from using scenarios for strategic Foresight. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. November 2010. Vol. 77, No 8, p. 1513–1518.
7. BLACKMAN, Colin. Stumbling along or grave new world? Toward Europe ́s information society. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No 5, p.261- 270.
8. BLASS, Eddie; THORNTON, Marie y BERNICE, Rawling. Future sce- narios for a depressed region of England: the role of education in creating alternative futures. En: Foresight. 2011. Vol. 13, No. 6, p.3-17.
9. BLASS, Eddie; JASMAN, Anne y SHELLEY, Steve. Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK. En: Futures. June 2010. Vol. 42, No. 5, P. 445–453.
10. BOUWMAN, H. y VANDER DER DUIN, P. Technological forecasting and scenario matter. En: Foresight.2003. Vol. 5, No.4, p. 8-19.
11. BRUNNHUBER, Stefan; FINK, Alexander, y KUHLE, Jens Peter. The financial system matters: future perspectives and scenarios for a sus- tainable future. En: Futures. May 2005. Vol 37, No. 4, p.317–332.
12. CAIRNS, George; WRIGHT, George; BRADFIELD, Ron; VAN DER HEIDEN, Kees y BURT, George. Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning. En: Technological Fore- casting and Social Change. March 2004. Vol. 71, No. 3, p.217-238.
13. CAIRNS, George; AHMED, Iftekhar; MULLETT, Jean y WRIGHT, George. Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical re- flections on a climate change scenarios case study.En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. January 2013. Vol. 80, No. 1, p. 1–10.
14. CASTORENA, David; ROMERO, Geovanny Y VILLARREAL, Ama- do. Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol. 15, No. 6, p.492-516.
15. CEPNI, Elif. Does convergence matter if it takes 100 years? Different scenarios of convergence. En: Futures. October 2010. Vol. 42, No. 8, p. 882–894.
16. COLE, María, y KUHLMANN, Andrés. A scenario-based approach to airport security. En: Futures. May 2012. Vol. 44, No.4, p. 319–327.
17. CZAPLICKA-KOLARZ, Krystina; STANCZYK, Krzysztof; y KAPUS- TA, Krzysztof. Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector de- velopment in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of tech- nology foresighting. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2009. Vol. 76, No. 3, p. 327–338.
18. DAVOUDI, Simin; WISHARDT, Michelle y STRANGE, Ian. The ageing of future: Demographic scenarios of Europe ́s future. En: Futures. Oc- tober 2010. Vol. 42, No. 8, p.794–803.
19. DE BRABANDERE, Luc y INY. Alan. Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. No- vember 2010. Vol. 77, No. 9, p.1506–1512.
20. DEVEZA, Tessalano; LEPOIRE, David; MATIAS, Joa; SILVA, Abilio.Ener- gy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm. En: Futures. Februar 2008. Vol. 40, No. 1, p. 1–16.
21. FORGE, Simon; BLACKMAN, Colin y BOHLIN, Eric. Constructing and using scenarios to forecast demand for future mobile communi- cations services. En: Foresight.2006. Vol. 8, No.3, p. 35-54.
22. GODET, Michel y DURANCE, Philippe. La prospective Estratégica para las empresas y territorios. Traducido por Karel García Cortina. Paris: Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Educación, la Cien- cia y la Cultura. 2011. 157p.
23. GLENN, Jerome, y GORDON, Theodore. Three alternative Middle East peace scenarios. Foresight. 2008. Vol. 7, No. 2, p. 8-20.
24. GNATZY, Tobias y MOSER, Roger. Scenario development for an evol- ving health insurance industry in rural India: INPUT for business mo- del innovation. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Mayo 2012. Vol. 79, No. 4, p. 688–699.
25. GROSSMAN, Iris. Three scenarios for the greater Hamburg region. En: Futures. February 2006. Vol. 38, No. 1, p. 31–49.
26. HASLAUER, Eva; BIBERACHER, Markus y BLASCHKE, Thomas. GIS-based Backcasting: An innovative method for parameterisation of sustainable spatial planning and resource management. En: Futures. May 2012. Vol. 44, No. 4, p.292–302.
27. LEE, Du Hee; PARK, Sang Yong; KIM Jong Wook y LEE, Seong Kon. Analysis on the feedback effect for the diffusion of innovative tech- nologies focusing on the green car. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2013. Vol. 80, No. 3, p.498–509.
28. HEINONEN, Sirkka y LLAUTTAMÄKI, Vile. Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions. En: Foresight. 2012. Vol. 14, No. 4, p.304-315.
29. HERNANDEZ SAMPIERI, Roberto, FERNÁNDEZ, Carlos y BAPTIS- TA, Pilar. Metodología de la Investigación. México: MC Graw Hill.2003. 705p.
30. HILLMAN, Karl y SANDEN, Bjorn. Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007–2020.En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. October 2008. Vol. 75, No.8, p. 1279–1302.
31. HINES, Andy. The futures of futures: a Scenario salon. En Fore- sight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 4, p.28-35.
32. INAYATULLAH, Sohail. Alternative future of transport. En: Fore- sight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 1, p.34-43.
33. KAMEOKA, Akio; YOKOO, Yoshiko y KUWAHARA, Terutaka. A cha- llenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. July 2004. Vol. 71, No. 6, p. 579–598.
34. KELLY, Ruth; SIRR, Locan y RATCLIFFE, John. Future thinking to achieve sustainable development at local level in Ireland. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No. 2, p. 80-90.
35. VAN ́T KLOOSTER, Susan y VAN ASSELT, Marjolein. Practising the scenario-axes technique. En: Futures. February 2006. Vol. 38, no. 1, p. 15–30.
36. KUHLMANN, Stefan y EDLER, Jakob. Scenarios of Technology and innovation policies in Europe: Investigating future governance. En: Te- chnological forecasting and Social Change. September 2003. Vol. 70, No. 7, p. 619-637.
37. LENNERT, Moritz y ROBERT, Jaques. he territorial futures of Europe: “Trends”, “Competition” or “Cohesion”. En: Futures. October 2010. Vol. 42, no. 8, p. 833–845.
38. GOMEZ-LIMÓN, José; GÓMEZ-RAMOS, Almudena y SANCHEZ, Gabriela. Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level. En: Futures. Vol. 41, No.5, p. 313–324.
39. MAHMUD, Jaizuluddin. City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bu- lungan development plan. En: Futures, Vol 43, No. 7, p. 697–706.
40. GARCIA, Juan M. Teoría y ejercicios prácticos de dinámica de siste- mas. 2° ed. Barcelona: Juan Martin García. 2006. 299p.
41. MAY, Graham. The future of financial services in Europe. En: Foresight. 2004. Vol. 6, No. 5, p. 271-280.
42. MONTGOMERY, Alexandra. US Families 2025: In search of future fa- milies. En: Futures, Vol. 40, No 4, p. 377–387.
43. MORTENSEN, Jorgen y VILELLA-VILA, Marta. The future of emplo- yment supply and demand in social Europe. En. Futures. September 2012. Vol. 44, no. 7, p. 671–677.
44. NASRUDDIN, Ellisha; BUSTAMI, Reevany e Inayatullah, Sohail. Trans- formative foresight: Universiti Sains Malaysia leads the way. En: Futu- res. February 2012. Vol. 44, No. 1, p.36–45.
45. NIEWÖHNER, J.; WIEDEMANN, P.; KARGER, C.; SCHICKTANZ, S. y TANNERT, C. Participatory prognostics in Germany—developing citizen scenarios for the relationship between biomedicine and the economy in 2014. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. February de 2005. Vol. 72, No. 2, p. 195–211.
46. ÖZKAYNAK, Begun y RODRIGUEZ-LABAJOS, Beatriz. Multi-scale interaction in local scenario-building: A methodological framework. En: Futures. November 2010. Vol. 42, No. 9, p.995–1006.
47. PAGANI, Margherita. Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling. En: Te- chnological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2009. Vol. 76, no. 3, p. 382–395.
48. PINTO MARTINS, Pérsio; GAMA BOVENTURA Joao; FISCHMANN, Adalberto; KRAMER COSTA, BENNY y GIOVINAZZO, RENATA. Scenarios for the Brazilian road freight transport industry. En: Fore- sight. 2012. Vol.14, No. 3, p. 207-224.
49. POPPER, Rafael. Metodología de la Prospectiva. En: Manual de Pros- pectiva Tecnológica. Conceptos y prácticas. 2011. México: Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, p.85-138.
50. RAMOS, Isabel. Exploratory landscape scenarios in the formulation of landscape quality objectives. En: Futures. September 2010. Vol. 42, No. 7, p. 682–692.
51. RHISIART, Martin. Exploring the future for arts and culture organiza- tions through scenarios and vignettes. En: Futures. June 2013.Vol 50, No. Especial, p. 15–24.
52. RIKKONEN, Pasi y TAPIO, Petri. Future prospects of alternative agro- based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quan- titative and qualitative Delphi data. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2009. Vol. 76, No. 7, p. 978–990.
53. RODRIGUEZ-RODRIGUEZ, Raúl; ALFARO, Juan; ORTIZ, Ángel, CA- ROT, José; y JABALOYES, José. Building internal business scenarios based on real data from a performance measurement system. En: Te- chnological Forecasting and Social Change. January 2010. Vol. 77, No. 1, p. 50–62.
54. SARITAS, Ozcan y AYLEN, Jonathan. Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2010. Vol. 77, No. 7, p.1061–1075.
55. SARITAS, Ozcan y KEENAN, Michael. Broken promises and/or tech- no dreams? The future of health and social services in Europe. Fore- sight.2004. Vol. 6, No. 5, p. 281-291.
56. SAURIN, Ruth y RATCLIFFE, John. Using an adaptive scenarios approach to establish strategies for tomorrow ́s workplace. En: Fore- sight. 2011. Vol. 13, No.4, p. 46-63.
57. SCHWAB, Patrick; CERUTTI, Fabio y VON REIBNITZ, Ute. Using sce- narios to shape the future of agricultural research. En: Foresight.2003. Vol. 5, No. 1, p. 55-61.
58. SHAKWEER, Abeer y YOUSSEF, Reham. Futures studies in Egypt: Wa- ter Foresight 2025. En: Foresight. 2007. Vol. 9, No. 4, p. 22-32.
59. SHERRAZ, Umar; INAYATULLAH, Sohail y SHAH, Ali. E- health futu- res in Bangladesh. En: Foresight. 2012. Vol 15, No. 3, p. 177-189.
60. SMITH, Ricardo; VESGA, Daniel; CADENA, Angela; BOMAN, Ulf; LARSEN, Erik y DYNER, Isaac. Energy scenarios for Colombia: pro- cess and content. En: Futures. February 2005. Vol. 37, No. 1, p. 1–17.
61. SOETANTO, Robby; DAINTY, Andrew; GOODIER, CHris, y AUSTIN, Simon. Unravelling the complexity of collective mental models: A me- thod for developing and analysing scenarios in multi-organisational contexts. En: Futures. October 201. Vol. 43, No. 8, p. 890–907.
62. SON, Hyeonju. (2013). Alternative future scenarios for South Korea in 2030. En: Futures. August 2013. Vol. 52, p. 27–41.
63. SPANDOLINI, Michael. Benchmarking. Bogota: Grupo Editorial Nor- ma. 1994, 248p.
64. STEENHOF, Paul y FULTON, Whitman. Scenario development in China’s electricity sector. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Julio 2007. Vol. 74, No. 6, p. 779–797.
65. STRATYIGEA, A. y GIAOUTZI, M. Linking global to regional sce- narios in foresight. En: Futures. December 2012. Vol. 44, No. 10 pp. 847–859.
66. TAPINOS, Eftstathios. Scenario planning at business unit level. En: Fu- tures. March 2013. Vol.47, p. 17–27.
67. TSENG, Fang-Mei; CHENG, Ai-Chia y PENG, Yi-Ning. Assessing mar- ket penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the tech- nological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. September 2009. Vol. 76, No. 7, p. 897–909.
68. VAN BREE, B.; VERBONG, G.P.; y KRAMER. G.J. A multi-level perspec- tive on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. May 2010. Vol. 77, No. 4, p. 529–540.
69. VAN DER GRACHT, Heiko y DARKOW, Inge – Lena. The future role of logistics for global wealth - scenarios and discontinuities until 2025. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol. 15, No. 5, p.405-419.
70. VAN DER LIJN, Jair. Scenarios for Sudan in 2012: crash or happy take -off. En: Foresight. 2010. Vol. 12, No. 4, p. 3-22.
71. VARUM, Celeste Amorin; MELO, Carla; ALVARENGA, Antonio y SOEIRO, Paulo. (2011). Scenarios and possibles futures for hospitality and tourism. En: Foresight. 2011. Vol. 13 No. 1, p. 19-35.
72. VARUM, Celeste, y MELO, Carla. Directions in scenario planning lite- rature – A review of the past decades. En. Futures. May 2010. Vol. 42, No. 4, p.335 – 369.
73. VERFAILLIE, Kristof; Vander Beken Tom. Interesting times: European criminal markets in 2015. En: Futures. June 2008. Vol. 40, No. 5, p.438– 450.
74. VIVANCO - ARANDA, Miroslava; MOJICA, José; FRANCISCO, Javier y Martínez - Cordero, Francisco. Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2011. Vol. 78, No. 3, p. 481–497.
75. WANG, Ming-Yeu; y Lan, Wei-Ting. Combined forecast process: Com- bining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model. En: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. March 2007. Vol. 74, No. 3, p. 357–378.
76. WANGEL, Josefin; GUSTAFSSON, Stina y SVANE, Orjan. Goal-ba- sed socio-technical scenarios: Greening the mobility practices in the Stockholm City District of Bromma, Sweden. En: Futures. March 2013. Vol. 47, p.79–92.
77. WIEK, Amin; GASSER, Lukas y SIEGRIST, Michael. Systemic scenarios of nanotechnology: Sustainable governance of emerging technologies. En: Futures. Junio 2009. Vol. 41, No. 5, p. 284–300.
78. fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspecti- ve-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process. En: Technological forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 70, No. 4, p. 359- 384.
79. WRIGHT, David. Alternative futures: AmI scenarios and Minority Re- port. En: Futures. Junio 2008. Vol. 40, No. 5, p. 473–488.
80. YOKOO, Yoshiko y OKUWADA, Kumi. Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs. En: Foresight. 2013. Vol.15, No.1, p. 6-18.
Downloads
Publicado
2015-06-01
Edição
Seção
Artigos
Como Citar
Selección de los métodos para la construcción de los escenarios de futuro. (2015). Entramado, 11(1), 32-46. https://doi.org/10.18041/entramado.2015v11n1.21113
