Evaluación rápida de los modelos de mortalidad evitada con la vacuna Covid-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18041/2665-427X/ijeph.1.10936Palabras clave:
mortalidad evitada, vacunación masiva, salud pública, COVID-19, modelización epidemiológicaResumen
Introducción: La vacunación masiva contra el COVID-19 en pandemia fue un reto para cuantificar su efecto. Se pueden hacer comparaciones en el tiempo (comparando resultados según la tasa de vacunación); la mayoría de estimaciones se basan en modelos que utilizan la eficacia de la vacuna tomados de ensayos clínicos. Las estimaciones de los modelos de mortalidad evitada (ME) repercutan en decisiones políticas. Así, los supuestos deben ser transparentes y reproducibles.
Objetivo: Evaluar los supuestos de modelos para estimaciones de ME por vacunas COVID-19. Reconociendo la necesidad de simplificaciones y suposiciones en la construcción de modelos.
Métodos: El estudio analizó modelos existentes que cuantificaron el impacto de la vacunación masiva en ME, a nivel mundial y en países/regiones específicos. Se examinaron supuestos de los modelos e identificaron áreas en las que podrían exagerar la ME. Este estudio realizó comparaciones entre modelos para encontrar los atípicos.
Resultados: Varios supuestos de los modelos tienden a exagerar el nivel de ME por vacunas COVID-19. Esta correlación plantea interrogantes sobre la exactitud de las estimaciones relativas a ME positiva. Se encontró un notable caso atípico en la modelización de la ME: estudio canadiense.
Conclusiones: Se debe mejorar la modelización epidemiológica para evaluar el impacto de la vacunación. Los supuestos tienden a exagerar ME. Esto indica la importancia de fundamentar las respuestas a las enfermedades infecciosas con análisis más rigurosos. La investigación contribuye a mejorar la comprensión de las consecuencias de la vacunación en pandemia de COVID-19.
Descargas
Referencias
1. Walmsley T, Rose A, Wei D. The impacts of the coronavirus on the economy of the United States. Econ Dis Cli Cha. 2021; 5(1): 1-52. doi: 10.1007/s41885-020-00080-1.
2. Evans S, Alkan E, Bhangoo JK, Tenenbaum H, Ng-Knight T. Effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on mental health, wellbeing, sleep, and alcohol use in a UK student sample. Psychiatry Res. 2021; 298: 113819. doi: 10.1016/j.psychres.2021.113819.
3. Chaturvedi K, Vishwakarma DK, Singh N. COVID-19 and its impact on education, social life and mental health of students: A survey. Child Youth Serv Rev. 2021; 121: 105866. doi: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2020.105866.
4. Bhavsar V, Kirkpatrick K, Calcia M, Howard LM. Lockdown, domestic abuse perpetration, and mental health care: gaps in training, research, and policy. Lancet Psychiatry. 2021; 8(3): 172-4. doi: 10.1016/S2215-0366(20)30397-7.
5. Fitousi D, Rotschild N, Pnini C, Azizi O. Understanding the impact of face masks on the processing of facial identity, emotion, age, and gender. Front Psychol. 2021; 12. Doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.743793
6. Engeroff T, Groneberg DA, Niederer D. The impact of ubiquitous face masks and filtering face piece application during rest, work and exercise on gas exchange, pulmonary function and physical performance: a systematic review with meta-analysis. Sports Med Open. 2021; 7(1): 92. doi: 10.1186/s40798-021-00388-6.
7. Bottalico P, Murgia S, Puglisi GE, Astolfi A, Kirk KI. Effect of masks on speech intelligibility in auralized classrooms. J Acoust Soc Am. 2020; 148(5): 2878. doi: 10.1121/10.0002450.
8. Fraiman J, Erviti J, Jones M, Greenland S, Whelan P, Kaplan RM, et al. Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults. Vaccine. 2022; 40(40): 5798-805. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.08.036.
9. Meslé MM, Brown J, Mook P, Hagan J, Pastore R, Bundle N, et al. Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021. Euro Surveill. 2021; 26(47): 2101021. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101021.
10. Watson OJ, Barnsley G, Toor J, Hogan AB, Winskill P, Ghani AC. Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2022; 22(9): 1293-302. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6.
11. Vilches TN, Moghadas SM, Sah P, Fitzpatrick MC, Shoukat A, Pandey A, et al. Estimating COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths following the US vaccination campaigns during the pandemic. JAMA Netw Open. 2022; 5(1): e2142725. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.42725
12. Schneider EC, Shah A, Sah P, Moghadas SM, Vilches T, Galvani AP. The U.S. COVID-19 vaccination program at one year: how many deaths and hospitalizations were averted?. Commonwealth Fund; 2021. Available from: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2021/dec/us-covid-19-vaccination-program-one-year-how-many-deaths-and
13. Gupta S, Cantor J, Simon KI, Bento AI, Wing C, Whaley CM. Vaccinations against covid-19 may have averted up to 140,000 deaths in The United States. Health Affairs. 2021; 40(9): 1465-72. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00619.
14. Ogden NH, Turgeon P, Fazil A, Clark J, Gabriele-Rivet V, Tam T, Ng V. Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened? Can Commun Dis Rep 2022; 48(7/8): 292-302. Doi: 10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01
15. Yamana TK, Galanti M, Pei S, Fusco MD, Angulo FJ, Moran MM, et al. The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in the US: Averted burden of SARS-COV-2-related cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Plos One. 2023; 18(4): e0275699. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275699.
16. Vilches TN, Sah P, Moghadas SM, Shoukat A, Fitzpatrick MC, Hotez PJ, et al. COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths averted under an accelerated vaccination program in northeastern and southern regions of the USA. Lancet Reg Health Am. 2022; 6: 100147. doi: 10.1016/j.lana.2021.100147.
17. Haas EJ, McLaughlin JM, Khan F, Angulo FJ, Anis E, Lipsitch M, et al. Infections, hospitalisations, and deaths averted via a nationwide vaccination campaign using the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in Israel: a retrospective surveillance study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022 Mar;22(3):357-366. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00566-1.
18. Barro RJ. Vaccination rates and COVID outcomes across U.S. states. Econ Hum Biol. 2022 Dec:47:101201. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101201.
19. Baum U, Poukka E, Leino T, Kilpi T, Nohynek H, Palmu AA. High vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in the elderly in Finland before and after the emergence of Omicron. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2022; 22(1): 816. doi: 10.1186/s12879-022-07814-4.
20. Shoukat A, Vilches TN, Moghadas SM, Sah P, Schneider EC, Shaff J, et al. Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study. Lancet Reg Health Am. 2022 Jan:5:100085. doi: 10.1016/j.lana.2021.100085.
21. Halma MTJ, Guetzkow J. Public Health Needs the Public Trust: A Pandemic Retrospective. BioMed. 2023; 3(2): 256-71. Doi: 10.3390/biomed3020023
22. Aarstad J, Kvitastein OA. Is there a link between the 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Europe and 2022 excess all-cause mortality? Asian Pacific J Health Sci. 2023; 10 (1): 25-31. Doi: 10.21276/apjhs.2023.10.1.6
23. Walensky RP. Before the select subcommittee on the coronavirus pandemic
committee on oversight and accountability U.S. house of representatives. CDC; 2023. Cited: 2023 Jun 15. Available from: https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/CDC-Testimony-SSCP-6.13.23-Hearing.pdf
24. Añel JA, García-Rodríguez M, Rodeiro J. Current status on the need for improved accessibility to climate models code. Geoscientific Model Development. 2021; 14(2): 923-34. Doi: 10.5194/gmd-14-923-2021
25. Ritchie H, Mathieu E, Rodés-Guirao L, Appel C, Giattino C, Ortiz-Ospina E, et al. Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). Our world in data. 2020. Cited: 2022 Jul 25; Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
26. Patalon T, Saciuk Y, Peretz A, Perez G, Lurie Y, Maor Y, et al. Waning effectiveness of the third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Nat Commun. 2022; 13(1): 3203. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-30884-6.
27. Zhuang C, Liu X, Chen Q, Sun Y, Su Y, Huang S, et al. Protection Duration of COVID-19 Vaccines: Waning Effectiveness and Future Perspective. Front Microbiol. 2022; 13. Doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2022.828806
28. Nordström P, Ballin M, Nordström A. Risk of infection, hospitalisation, and death up to 9 months after a second dose of COVID-19 vaccine: a retrospective, total population cohort study in Sweden. Lancet. 2022; 399(10327): 814-23. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00089-7.
29. Gill JR, Tashjian R, Duncanson E. Autopsy Histopathologic Cardiac Findings in 2 Adolescents Following the Second COVID-19 Vaccine Dose. Arch Pathol Lab Med. 2022; 146(8): 921-923. doi: 10.5858/arpa.2022-0084-LE.
30. Suzuki H, Ro A, Takada A, Saito K, Hayashi K. Autopsy findings of post-COVID-19 vaccination deaths in Tokyo Metropolis, Japan, 2021. Leg Med (Tokyo). 2022; 59: 102134. doi: 10.1016/j.legalmed.2022.102134.
31. Schwab C, Domke LM, Hartmann L, Stenzinger A, Longerich T, Schirmacher P. Autopsy-based histopathological characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination. Clin Res Cardiol. 2023; 112(3): 431-40. doi: 10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5.
32. COVID Surg Collaborative; GlobalSurg Collaborative. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. Br J Surg. 2021; 108(9):1056-1063. doi: 10.1093/bjs/znab101.
33. Lopez BJ, Andrews N, Gower C, Gallagher E, Simmons R, Thelwall S, et al. Effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. N Engl J Med. 2021; 385(7):585-594. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2108891.
34. Gardner BJ, Kilpatrick AM. Estimates of reduced vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization, infection, transmission and symptomatic disease of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron (B.1.1.529), using neutralizing antibody titers. medRxiv; 2021. Doi: 10.1101/2021.12.10.21267594v2
35. GOV.UK. Appendix 1: estimation of number needed to vaccinate to prevent a COVID-19 hospitalisation for primary vaccination, booster vaccination (3rd dose), autumn 2022 and spring 2023 booster for those newly in a risk group. 2023. Cited 2023 May 27. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-2023-jcvi-interim-advice-8-november-2022/appendix-1-estimation-of-number-needed-to-vaccinate-to-prevent-a-covid-19-hospitalisation-for-primary-vaccination-booster-vaccination-3rd-dose-au
36. Devleesschauwer B, Havelaar AH, Maertens de Noordhout C, Haagsma JA, Praet N, Dorny P, et al. DALY calculation in practice: a stepwise approach. Int J Public Health. 2014; 59(3): 571-4. DOI: 10.1007/s00038-014-0553-y
37. Ioannidis JPA. Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data. Bull World Health Organ. 2021; 99(1): 19-33F. doi: 10.2471/BLT.20.265892.
38. Prunas O, Warren JL, Crawford FW, Gazit S, Patalon T, Weinberger DM, et al. Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel. Science. 2022; 375(6585): 1151-4. doi: 10.1126/science.abl4292
39. Puhach O, Adea K, Hulo N, Sattonnet P, Genecand C, Iten A, et al. Infectious viral load in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals infected with ancestral, Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2. Nat Med. 2022; 28(7): 1491-500. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-01816-0.
40. Haas EJ, Angulo FJ, McLaughlin JM, Anis E, Singer SR, Khan F, et al. Impact and effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths following a nationwide vaccination campaign in Israel: an observational study using national surveillance data. Lancet. 2021; 397(10287): 1819-29. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00947-8
41. CDC. COVID-19 Vaccination Age and Sex Trends in the United States, National and Jurisdictional. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; 2023. cited 2023 Jun 26. Available from: https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-Age-and-Sex-Trends-in-the-Uni/5i5k-6cmh
42. World Bank Group. World Bank Open Data; 2023. cited 2023 Jun 26. Available from: https://data.worldbank.org
43. Terveyden ja hyvinvoinnin laitos. Tutkimus: Koronarokotuksilla estettiin Suomessa noin 7 300 koronataudista johtuvaa kuolemaa maaliskuun 2022 loppuun mennessä - Tiedote – THL; 2023. cited: 2023 May 15. Available from: https://thl.fi/fi/-/tutkimus-koronarokotuksilla-estettiin-suomessa-noin-7-300-koronataudista-johtuvaa-kuolemaa-maaliskuun-2022-loppuun-mennessa
44. Historical Car Crash Deaths by Age Group. Injury Facts. 2025. cited 2025 Jun 11. Available from: https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-by-age-group/
45. Worldometer. Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19). Worldometer; 2025. cited 2025 Jun 11. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Descargas
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2025 Interdisciplinary Journal of Epidemiology and Public Health
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
