Monte Carlo’s Simulation Method Applied to South American Qualifying Competition for Brazil World Cup 2014

Abstract

We are living in a time in which individuals around the world are excited about watching their national teams participating in Brazil World Cup 2014. This situation covers up the probability of South American National teams to classify to this major worldwide event. To recreate this scenario, it was decided to use Monte Carlo’s simulation method (MC) which allows obtaining solutions for mathematical problems or physical problems through random testing. By implementing the MC simulation method in the qualifying round for the 2014 World Cup, it is possible to determine the different probabilities that different teams have for qualifying directly to this event taking as a reference the results of the last two matches of this events, recreating n th times as a result closer to the reality. From the analysis of the qualifying probabilities of the National Teams of Uruguay, Ecuador y Venezuela and under the theoretical background this kind of simulation tries to contribute, it is showed a quantitative technique that facilitates the projection of the three options for this teams (i.e. Qualifying directly, inter-confederational play-offs or Elimination). Key words: Monte Carlo's Simulation, Qualifi cation probability, Statistical analysis, Random samples.