Proposal for a Simulation Model of the Prison Population in Colombia using Systems Dynamics
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18041/1794-4953/avances.1.11942Keywords:
System Dynamics, Prison Population, Prison OvercrowdingAbstract
The main objective of this document is to present a system dynamics model that enables the simulation and prediction of the prison population in Colombia for the year 2050. This model is based on statistical data provided by INPEC and offers a detailed analysis of the prison population's behavior, considering factors such as detentions, inmate deaths, releases, births, and deaths of Colombian citizens. Additionally, the issue of overcrowding is comprehensively addressed by incorporating relevant auxiliary variables. Based on the model's construction, various scenarios are proposed to facilitate a deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics and trends. According to this analysis, the simulation estimates that the prison population in 2050 will be approximately 570,000 individuals.
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